The Future of Work

The pandemic has altered the way Americans work. Are remote work and flex schedules temporary, or will they become the norm in trying to harness human capital?

By Tom Kertscher

f anything is newly calibrated in mid-pandemic America, it鈥檚 work.

For how much longer will 鈥渢he office鈥� and 鈥渃ommuting鈥� be a meaningful part of the vernacular? How much are the bosses even in charge anymore?

For many months, as COVID-19 gave way to delta and then omicron, the signs have been unmistakable: millions quitting their jobs at a record pace; workers not only holding out for flexibility but demanding that they be made to feel valued; executives, managing the precarious balance, worrying about the loss of corporate culture and, of course, productivity.

So, what is the future of work?

What鈥檚 clear is that more of it, pandemic or not, will be done at home.

鈥淚 think this is something that has been in slow motion for a long time. What the pandemic did was accelerate the experiment,鈥� said Jay Lauf 鈥�86, co-founder and president of , a New York City media and services company focused on the future of work. 鈥淚n a lot of ways, the [work-from-home] experiment鈥檚 proven that it can be done, and done more readily and effectively.

鈥淢y hope is that we won鈥檛 necessarily snap back to the way things were before the pandemic, and that there鈥檚 a real opportunity to create more long-term systemic change that creates more high-functioning and equitable workplaces,鈥� added Lauf, the former publisher of The Atlantic and WIRED.

The acceleration of remote work caused by COVID-19, said Erin Robertson 鈥�14, human capital manager at Deloitte Consulting in Arlington, Va., 鈥渇orced leaders to explore and think critically about where work is performed, how it鈥檚 done and who exactly does it. I think, specifically from a workforce perspective, the shift toward a hybrid environment proved that people can work efficiently; they can work effectively without being in person.

鈥淚 think it also demonstrated how a more flexible work environment can actually attract and retain more diverse and geographically dispersed talent, and it illuminated different cost-saving opportunities.鈥�

THE PANDEMIC JOLT

Among the factors driving the change is a shift in the balance of power away from employers and toward employees. It鈥檚 historically significant.

The federal right to unionize (1935), a federal minimum wage (1938) and a 40-hour workweek (1938) came about only after decades of struggle at the ballot box and through strikes, said Mark Stelzner, an assistant professor of economics at 糖心TV, whose research focuses on income inequality in the United States. Since the 1980s, some of the worker gains have eroded and union membership has plummeted. The emergence of the coronavirus brought a resurgence in worker power.

鈥淚n terms of COVID, there was this jolt to the employer-employee relationship, and this jolt forced many employees in a number of ways to reevaluate their relationship with their employers,鈥� Stelzner said.

Therapists who began counseling patients remotely realized that maybe they didn鈥檛 need to be part of a clinic. Front-line workers who were forced to show up on the job and risk their health questioned how much their interests were being considered. Layoffs led some people to downsize their lives; in consuming less, they didn鈥檛 need to generate as much income.

Some front-line workers decided the health risks weren鈥檛 worth it. They opted for other jobs or perhaps went back to live with their parents while awaiting safer opportunities, Stelzner said. Some who quit jobs did so to protect themselves from COVID-19, or to protect their children by keeping them out of school or child care facilities. Others made a permanent or at least long-term decision. Couples, for example, chose one full-time income instead of two, or one full-time and one part-time income.

The office is a tool, not a place. It’s not a place where work gets done, it’s actually: How is the office a tool for facilitating work?

Jay Lauf 鈥�86, co-founder and president of Charter

鈥淐OVID-19 has forced a reevaluation of life, people accepting that they are making less and consuming less,鈥� Stelzner said. 鈥淒o I want to keep working to just buy some more luxury goods?鈥�

The awakening led the country to this tipping point.

More than 19 million workers quit their jobs between April and September 2021, a record pace, according to the management consulting firm McKinsey & Company. And an estimated 4.5 million workers quit or changed jobs in November 2021, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

Fifty-five percent of employees say that whether or not they can work flexibly will impact their decision to stay, according to the consulting firm Gartner.

At the same time, 36 percent of executives say the loss of corporate culture is the biggest challenge to hybrid work, according to PwC, the professional services network.

HYBRID SEEN AS THE ANSWER

The new expectations of employees, who have more bargaining power amid labor shortages, mean a shift to a hybrid model is likely to last as long as the pandemic does, and probably beyond.

鈥淭he office is a tool, not a place,鈥� Lauf said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not a place where work gets done, it鈥檚 actually: How is the office a tool for facilitating work?鈥�

A hybrid-work policy provides the opportunity 鈥渇or all the benefits of colocation on days when you鈥檙e doing colocation, but it also provides the benefits of working from home in the moments that it鈥檚 more beneficial,鈥� he said. 鈥淐ompanies, leaders and managers have come to the realization that some combination of those two things is ideal for productivity.鈥�

In any flex policy, Lauf recommends that employers specify when employees are to work in the workplace, when collaboration is needed, and when they are to work at home, particularly when 鈥渉ead down鈥� concentration is required. That precision also ensures fairness so that employees who might have the ability to spend more time in the office don鈥檛 get unfair amounts of facetime with the boss.

At the same time, managers will need more support as they adapt to guiding their direct reports, not only in the workplace but at home.

鈥淭he job of a manager used to be managing people鈥檚 9-to-5 work, and now it鈥檚 actually managing them 24/7, making sure that they are looking after their well-being, their mental health, their ability to care-give and all the rest of it,鈥� Lauf said. 鈥淚 think there鈥檚 a lot more pressure on managers today than there ever has been.鈥�

Managers can expect more productivity as their employees work in more comfortable settings without commuting, according to Robertson.

鈥淏eing less stressed is very much correlated to being more productive,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hat can actually be responsible for up to $190 billion in annual U.S. health care costs. So, in terms of savings for organizations, eliminating stress as much as possible is a huge benefit to both them and employees.鈥�

Seasonally adjusted. Voluntary quits excludes retirements. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: The New York Times.

THE BENEFITS OF TOGETHERNESS

For some, giving employees the comforts of home can go too far.

Chris O鈥橠ea 鈥�98, managing director at Morgan Stanley in San Francisco, gained media attention in November 2021 for saying on a conference call: 鈥淚f you鈥檙e 21 to 35, you are nuts not to be in the office all the time,鈥� gaining knowledge from more-experienced co-workers.

A full-on push to return to the office may not be the norm, or even feasible, as variants of the coronavirus continue to pose threats. But employers such as Stephen Van Dyck 鈥�98, partner in the Seattle firm LMN Architects, put emphasis on time in the workplace even as they embrace the transition to hybrid work.

鈥淥ur first step in returning to the office is going to be a hybrid model: three days in the office and two days of flexible work鈥攜ou can work in the office, you can work at home, you can work somewhere else. We think that that is possible, that that could be the model in perpetuity,鈥� he said.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 know where we鈥檙e going to wind up. I鈥檓 sure it will be more productive ultimately.鈥�

Van Dyck said that while he values offering flexibility, he has also observed that remote-only work isn鈥檛 great for everyone, particularly younger employees in need of mentoring.

鈥淢any people prefer working remotely. I also know that many people don鈥檛,鈥� Van Dyck said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 been a lot more attention paid to people who feel like it鈥檚 going well in the remote world and less attention paid to those who aren鈥檛 experiencing remote work in a productive way.

鈥淚 think it鈥檚 really important for people to acknowledge that for a certain segment of the population, remote work has been very good. But I know that for many people, depending on their home lives, it鈥檚 hard to work at home. And the growth of young professionals is hard to achieve in a remote-working model.鈥�

LMN Architects designed the Voxman Music Building at the University of Iowa, the Bill & Melinda Gates Center for Computer Science & Engineering at the University of Washington, and the Cleveland Convention Center. Van Dyck sees these buildings, and buildings in general, as 鈥渟ystems that become important parts of people鈥檚 everyday lives.鈥� Therefore, he believes much is lost when co-workers and collaborators don鈥檛 spend time together in shared spaces.

鈥淭he few days that I have worked in the office the past few months have been really productive in different ways,鈥� he said. 鈥淧eople have remarked, almost unanimously, that it was such an exciting thing to be around each other again鈥攖he enthusiasm you won鈥檛 be able to get in a remote, collaborative setting, at least with the current technology.鈥�

For his part, Professor Stelzner questions whether the shift away from the workplace is permanent.

Being less stressed is very much correlated to being more productive.

Erin Robertson 鈥�14, human capital manager at Deloitte Consulting

鈥淚 think the knee-jerk impulse is for employers to bring workers back, but that鈥檚 been difficult, because employees like having a degree of freedom to be able to work from home at least some days of the week,鈥� Stelzner said. 鈥淏ut employers want to make sure they have [some control] over the workplace. So, I think there鈥檚 definitely going to be pressure for employees to return to the office.鈥�

Robertson sees the power shift toward employees as permanent, given labor shortages and competition for top talent.

鈥淚 think organizations that don鈥檛 adapt to what we鈥檙e calling 鈥榦ur new normal鈥� are really at a significant risk of losing employees who leave for companies that are offering greater flexibility,鈥� she said.

Stelzner, though, believes that questions about the future of work should run deeper than whether worker productivity is better in the office or at home. He said that Americans鈥� social connections, through things such as church membership, participation in sports leagues and time spent with neighbors and friends, have been on the decline鈥攖o the detriment of society鈥攕ince the 1970s.

So, spending less time in the workplace means even less socialization.

鈥淭he isolation due to COVID, maybe it helps us realize how important social connections really are,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut at the same time, the pandemic might also be breaking down the few social connections we have left, because we鈥檝e been in this now for two years.鈥�